Roda 0-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and Vitesse meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Vitesse's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vitesse's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Roda, 1.50 for Vitesse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Roda 1W, Vitesse 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 61% and Vitesse 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 59% | Vitesse 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.36 xG and Vitesse 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.851 / defence 1.093 | Vitesse attack 1.039 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.471. Data: 69 Roda games / 69 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 31% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 44%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Vitesse 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Vitesse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 16 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 31% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Roda 1.36 / Vitesse 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.851 / def 1.093 | Vitesse attack 1.039 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Vitesse xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Vitesse kick off?
Roda vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 March 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Vitesse?
Roda 0 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Roda vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Vitesse part of?
Roda vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 31% chance of winning, Vitesse a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Roda and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Vitesse?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Roda and Vitesse in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Vitesse (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.85x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (1.04x) against Roda's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
31%
3.25
25%
4.04
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Roda xG
Total xG
3.03
1.67
Vitesse xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
6%
17.23
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Roda and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Roda and 1.67 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 25W 21D 23L from 69 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 27L across 69 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Roda against 1.25 for Vitesse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 13W 10D 11L from 34 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 9W 11D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.48 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Vitesse in 62%.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 25W 21D 23L in their last 69 games (1.39 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 22W 20D 27L in their last 69 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Vitesse away?
Roda's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.44 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 26 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Roda
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Roda have won 1, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Roda 0-1 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 47%, Vitesse 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Roda) and 68% (Vitesse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Vitesse in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Roda's recent matches and 59% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Roda's matches and 68% of Vitesse's.
Do Roda and Vitesse tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitesse edge out Roda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.36 xG and Vitesse 1.67 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Vitesse attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 31% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 44%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 59%, Vitesse 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.39 PPG, Vitesse 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.