Den Bosch 1-4 Groningen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Groningen at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Groningen encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 28 as Den Bosch welcome Groningen to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Groningen have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Groningen — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Den Bosch have won 1, Groningen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with Den Bosch winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Den Bosch in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Groningen in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 52% versus Groningen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 63% | Groningen 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 0.80 xG and Groningen 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.682 / defence 1.023 | Groningen attack 1.009 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.339. Den Bosch's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen's defence strength of 0.723 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Den Bosch games / 26 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Den Bosch 20% | Draw 32% | Groningen 49%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Groningen 2.04. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 50% | Groningen 50%.

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