De Graafschap 2-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and FC OSS meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC OSS have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: De Graafschap 3W, FC OSS 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 52% versus FC OSS 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 58% | FC OSS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.63 xG and FC OSS 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.067 / defence 0.844 | FC OSS attack 0.755 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.359. Data: 65 De Graafschap games / 65 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 54% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 19%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | FC OSS 5.26. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | FC OSS 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 54% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG De Graafschap 1.63 / FC OSS 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.067 / def 0.844 | FC OSS attack 0.755 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.87
FC OSS xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC OSS kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC OSS part of?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 54% chance of winning, FC OSS a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both De Graafschap and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
Record (5 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. FC OSS (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.07) and FC OSS's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.76x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.67
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.50
0.87
FC OSS xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
4%
27.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.87 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 65 games, going 29W 11D 25L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.92 PPG from 65 outings (17W 9D 39L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 17W 5D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.75 points per game from 32 outings (6W 6D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.02 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 29W 11D 25L in their last 65 games (1.51 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 17W 9D 39L in their last 65 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC OSS away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.75 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.75 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC OSS in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 7, FC OSS have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 44%, FC OSS 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (De Graafschap) and 53% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC OSS in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 44% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of De Graafschap's recent games and 53% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and FC OSS tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out FC OSS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC OSS 2-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.63 xG and FC OSS 0.87 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against FC OSS attack 0.76 / defence 0.95, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 54% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 19%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 58%, FC OSS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC OSS's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.