FC Eindhoven 1-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to Jan Louwers Stadion to face FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
FC Eindhoven (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Jong AZ's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jong AZ away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Jong AZ are 0.50 PPG clear of FC Eindhoven over their recent games (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for FC Eindhoven, 0 for Jong AZ and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended FC Eindhoven 0–0 Jong AZ — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 55% versus Jong AZ 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 49% | Jong AZ 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.17 xG and Jong AZ 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.666 / defence 1.212 | Jong AZ attack 0.863 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.359. FC Eindhoven's attack rating of 0.666 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. FC Eindhoven's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong AZ's projected output up. Data: built from FC Eindhoven's last 65 games and Jong AZ's last 65.
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 30% | Draw 29% | Jong AZ 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 3.37 | Draw 3.46 | Jong AZ 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Eindhoven 50% (last 10 home games) | Jong AZ 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 28 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 30% | Draw 29% | Jong AZ 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG FC Eindhoven 1.17 / Jong AZ 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.666 / def 1.212 | Jong AZ attack 0.863 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Jong AZ xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ FAQs
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 March 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 30% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.67) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.86x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from FC Eindhoven's last 65 games and Jong AZ's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
30%
3.37
29%
3.46
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.59
1.42
Jong AZ xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
7%
13.99
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.42 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 22W 22D 21L from 65 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 25L across 65 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.38 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 12W 10D 10L from their last 32 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 9W 6D 17L across their last 32 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 60%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
FC Eindhoven (Home) vs Jong AZ (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ Form FAQs
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 22W 22D 21L in their last 65 games (1.35 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 25W 15D 25L in their last 65 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong AZ away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.44 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 10 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Eindhoven have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Eindhoven
3
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Eindhoven have won 6, Jong AZ have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2026: Jong AZ 0-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 50%, Jong AZ 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC Eindhoven) and 66% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 28% of games; Jong AZ in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Eindhoven's games and 62% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 66% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 78% of Jong AZ's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 28, as FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.17 xG and Jong AZ 1.42 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.67 / defence 1.21 against Jong AZ attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 30% | Draw 29% | Jong AZ 41%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 49%, Jong AZ 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.35 PPG, Jong AZ 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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