Groningen 0-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Euroborg plays host to Groningen versus Helmond Sport in Eerste Divisie (matchday 27). Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Groningen's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Groningen at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Helmond Sport (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Helmond Sport have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Groningen's favour (2.50 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Groningen edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Groningen 2–1 Helmond Sport — a Groningen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Groningen — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 49% versus Helmond Sport 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 59% | Helmond Sport 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 2.22 xG and Helmond Sport 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.118 / defence 0.887 | Helmond Sport attack 0.904 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.325. Data: built from Groningen's last 25 games and Helmond Sport's last 64.
Result probabilities: Groningen 62% | Draw 22% | Helmond Sport 16%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.60 | Draw 4.58 | Helmond Sport 6.32. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.22 / 1.06) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Groningen's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Groningen 50% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 27 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 62% | Draw 22% | Helmond Sport 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Groningen 2.22 / Helmond Sport 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.118 / def 0.887 | Helmond Sport attack 0.904 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Groningen (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Helmond Sport xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does Groningen vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Groningen vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 23 February 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Helmond Sport?
Groningen 0 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Groningen vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Helmond Sport part of?
Groningen vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 62% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Groningen and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Groningen vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Groningen's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Helmond Sport's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.90x) against Groningen's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 25 games and Helmond Sport's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
62%
1.60
22%
4.58
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.28
1.06
Helmond Sport xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
11%
9.19
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
2%
58.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Groningen and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Groningen and 1.06 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Groningen come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 11D 31L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Helmond Sport sit at 1.24 PPG from 59 outings (19W 16D 24L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Groningen against 1.24 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Groningen's home form reads 11W 5D 13L across their last 29 home games, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Helmond Sport have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 29 away games (6W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.25 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
Groningen (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Groningen vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 17W 11D 31L in their last 59 games (1.05 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 19W 16D 24L in their last 59 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Helmond Sport away?
Groningen's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.31 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 23 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Groningen
1
Draws
0
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Helmond Sport?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 1, Helmond Sport have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Groningen and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2024: Groningen 0-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Helmond Sport?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 48%, Helmond Sport 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Groningen) and 52% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 34% of games; Helmond Sport in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and Helmond Sport matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Groningen's recent matches and 52% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Groningen and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Groningen's matches and 52% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Groningen and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Groningen's recent matches and 72% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Groningen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 27, as Groningen and Helmond Sport drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 2.22 xG and Helmond Sport 1.06 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Groningen fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Helmond Sport landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against Helmond Sport attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 25/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 62% | Draw 22% | Helmond Sport 16%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 59%, Helmond Sport 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.05 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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