NAC Breda 3-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host Jong Utrecht at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
On current form, NAC Breda have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 1, Jong Utrecht 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 72% versus Jong Utrecht 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 66% | Jong Utrecht 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.67 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.881 / defence 0.987 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.841 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.359. Data: 65 NAC Breda games / 65 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 24%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Jong Utrecht 4.17. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | Jong Utrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG NAC Breda 1.67 / Jong Utrecht 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.881 / def 0.987 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.841 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Jong Utrecht xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
NAC Breda 3 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 49% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht?
Record (5 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 2 | Jong Utrecht 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.88) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.73
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.80
1.13
Jong Utrecht xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
5%
21.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.13 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 65 games, going 28W 12D 25L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.78 PPG from 65 outings (12W 15D 38L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 14W 7D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.44 points per game from 32 outings (3W 5D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.88 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 28W 12D 25L in their last 65 games (1.48 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 15D 38L in their last 65 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong Utrecht away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.53 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when NAC Breda 3-1 Jong Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 72%, Jong Utrecht 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for NAC Breda and 62% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of NAC Breda's games and 53% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of NAC Breda's matches and 62% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong Utrecht 3-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.67 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.13 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 49% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 24%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 66%, Jong Utrecht 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.