Almere City FC 1-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almere City FC face Den Bosch.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Almere City FC at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Almere City FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.40 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Almere City FC, 2 for Den Bosch and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2025, ended Almere City FC 2–5 Den Bosch — a Den Bosch win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 52% versus Den Bosch 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 59% | Den Bosch 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.26 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.155 / defence 0.975 | Den Bosch attack 1.019 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.525. Den Bosch's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almere City FC's projected output up. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 34 games and Den Bosch's last 71.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 54% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 25%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.84 | Draw 4.99 | Den Bosch 3.93. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.26 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and Den Bosch's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Den Bosch 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 35 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 54% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Almere City FC 2.26 / Den Bosch 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.155 / def 0.975 | Den Bosch attack 1.019 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Den Bosch xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almere City FC vs Den Bosch FAQs
What time does Almere City FC vs Den Bosch kick off?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Almere City FC 1 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch part of?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 35) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 54% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Almere City FC and Den Bosch will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almere City FC vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (1.16) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.02x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from Almere City FC's last 34 games and Den Bosch's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
54%
1.84
20%
4.99
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.78
1.51
Den Bosch xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
10%
9.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
3%
37.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almere City FC vs Den Bosch Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.51 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC come into this having played 68 games, going 21W 14D 33L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.32 PPG from 68 outings (24W 18D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.32 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Almere City FC's home form reads 11W 8D 15L across their last 34 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 34 away games (9W 7D 18L).
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.46 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
Almere City FC (Home) vs Den Bosch (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almere City FC
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Almere City FC vs Den Bosch Form FAQs
What form are Almere City FC and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 21W 14D 33L in their last 68 games (1.13 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 24W 18D 26L in their last 68 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Den Bosch away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.21 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Almere City FC and Den Bosch, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won Den Bosch 5-2 Almere City FC on 21 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Almere City FC vs Den Bosch H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Almere City FC have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Den Bosch last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, Den Bosch 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Almere City FC and 71% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Den Bosch in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almere City FC vs Den Bosch Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almere City FC and Den Bosch matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Almere City FC's games and 65% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almere City FC and Den Bosch matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Almere City FC's matches and 71% of Den Bosch's.
Do Almere City FC and Den Bosch matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 82% of Den Bosch's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Almere City FC 1-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.26 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.97 against Den Bosch attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 54% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 25%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 59%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.13 PPG, Den Bosch 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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