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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Cambuur travel to De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at De Vliert this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cambuur — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cambuur's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 1.60 PPG, Cambuur 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Cambuur in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Den Bosch have won 3, Cambuur 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Cambuur winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Cambuur in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 57% versus Cambuur 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 60% | Cambuur 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.59 xG and Cambuur 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.003 / defence 0.895 | Cambuur attack 1.145 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.486. Data: 72 Den Bosch games / 73 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Den Bosch 40% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 37%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Cambuur 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | Cambuur 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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