ADO Den Haag 1-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours ADO Den Haag — this ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
ADO Den Haag welcome De Graafschap to Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 25 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
ADO Den Haag — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, De Graafschap have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
De Graafschap away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (ADO Den Haag) versus 1.60 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of ADO Den Haag: 3 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for De Graafschap, with 3 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 May 2024, ended ADO Den Haag 2–2 De Graafschap — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both ADO Den Haag and goals — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
ADO Den Haag trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
De Graafschap trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 72% and De Graafschap 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 69% | De Graafschap 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: ADO Den Haag surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while De Graafschap have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that De Graafschap surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while ADO Den Haag recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.54 xG and De Graafschap 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.960 / defence 1.002 | De Graafschap attack 1.256 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.470. De Graafschap have an above-average attack rating of 1.256, which lifts their away xG to 1.85. Data: built from ADO Den Haag's last 49 games and De Graafschap's last 49.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 31% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 44%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 3.28 | Draw 3.85 | De Graafschap 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.54 / 1.85) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ADO Den Haag 80% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 100% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 12 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 31% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG ADO Den Haag 1.54 / De Graafschap 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.960 / def 1.002 | De Graafschap attack 1.256 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.85
De Graafschap xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 25 October 2024 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap part of?
ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 12) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 31% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (0.96) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ADO Den Haag's last 49 games and De Graafschap's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
31%
3.28
26%
3.85
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.39
1.85
De Graafschap xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
16%
6.36
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
5%
20.84
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.85 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 21W 18D 12L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
De Graafschap's form line: 24W 11D 16L from 51 games, 1.63 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: ADO Den Haag on 1.59 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 25 home games (9W 10D 6L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 6D 10L from their last 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.80 scored and 1.51 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 67%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
ADO Den Haag (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ADO Den Haag
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 21W 18D 12L in their last 51 games (1.59 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 24W 11D 16L in their last 51 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or De Graafschap away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.48 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
3
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, ADO Den Haag have won 6, De Graafschap have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ADO Den Haag at 72%, De Graafschap at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for ADO Den Haag and 76% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of ADO Den Haag's games and 72% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 76% of De Graafschap's.
Do ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 84% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out ADO Den Haag 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat ADO Den Haag 1-2 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.54 xG and De Graafschap 1.85 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against De Graafschap attack 1.26 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 31% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 44%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 69%, De Graafschap 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.59 PPG, De Graafschap 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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