Excelsior 0-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion plays host to Excelsior versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cambuur (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Excelsior's favour (2.30 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Excelsior 2W, Cambuur 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 4–1 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 85% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 69% and Cambuur 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 84% | Cambuur 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.80 xG and Cambuur 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.490 / defence 1.137 | Cambuur attack 0.901 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.470. Excelsior carry an above-average attack strength of 1.490 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Excelsior games / 49 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 43% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 31%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Cambuur 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Excelsior 60% | Cambuur 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 43% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Excelsior 1.80 / Cambuur 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.490 / def 1.137 | Cambuur attack 0.901 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Cambuur xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Cambuur kick off?
Excelsior vs Cambuur kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Cambuur?
Excelsior 0 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Excelsior vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Cambuur part of?
Excelsior vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 43% chance of winning, Cambuur a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Excelsior and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 2W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Excelsior and Cambuur in?
Excelsior (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Cambuur (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Excelsior vs Cambuur?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (1.49) and Cambuur's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.90x) against Excelsior's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.78
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.30
1.50
Cambuur xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.51
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.50 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Excelsior come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 13D 20L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.22 PPG from 49 outings (17W 9D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Excelsior against 1.22 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Excelsior's home form reads 11W 7D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.33 points per game from 24 outings (10W 2D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.65 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Cambuur in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 16W 13D 20L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 17W 9D 23L in their last 49 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Cambuur away?
Excelsior's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.67 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-1 on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Excelsior
0
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 2, Cambuur have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when Cambuur 1-0 Excelsior.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 67%, Cambuur 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Excelsior and 62% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Excelsior's games and 58% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Excelsior's matches and 62% of Cambuur's.
Do Excelsior and Cambuur tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat Excelsior 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Excelsior 0-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.80 xG and Cambuur 1.50 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Excelsior fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.49 / defence 1.14 against Cambuur attack 0.90 / defence 0.80, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 43% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 31%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 84%, Cambuur 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.24 PPG, Cambuur 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.