Dordrecht 3-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Dordrecht (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dordrecht face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Jong Utrecht at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at M-Scores Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong Utrecht in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Dordrecht: 3 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Jong Utrecht, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Dordrecht and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 63% versus Jong Utrecht 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 55% | Jong Utrecht 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.72 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.108 / defence 0.827 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.869 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.470. Data: 49 Dordrecht games / 49 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 51% | Draw 28% | Jong Utrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Jong Utrecht 4.76. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 60% | Jong Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 51% | Draw 28% | Jong Utrecht 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Dordrecht 1.72 / Jong Utrecht 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.108 / def 0.827 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.869 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Jong Utrecht xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Dordrecht 3 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 51% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht?
Record (6 meetings): Dordrecht 3W | Draws 3 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.56
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.77
1.06
Jong Utrecht xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
4%
26.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.06 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 23W 19D 7L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 5W 16D 28L from 49 games, 0.63 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dordrecht are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 2.00 PPG from 24 outings (13W 9D 2L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 8D 15L from 24 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.82 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 23W 19D 7L in their last 49 games (1.80 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 16D 28L in their last 49 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.00 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong Utrecht go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2022, when Dordrecht won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
3
Draws
3
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Jong Utrecht 3-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 54%, Jong Utrecht 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dordrecht) and 62% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Dordrecht's games and 58% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dordrecht's matches and 62% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Jong Utrecht 3-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.72 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.06 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.87 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 51% | Draw 28% | Jong Utrecht 21%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 55%, Jong Utrecht 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.63. Form held, and they took the win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.