FC Volendam 4-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 39%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kras Stadion this season.
FC Eindhoven have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC Volendam. A 0.70 PPG lead over FC Eindhoven (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 67% versus FC Eindhoven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 71% | FC Eindhoven 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.66 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.191 / defence 1.166 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.036 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.470. Data: 11 FC Volendam games / 49 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 35% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | FC Eindhoven 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Volendam 50% | FC Eindhoven 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 35% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG FC Volendam 1.66 / FC Eindhoven 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.191 / def 1.166 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.036 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.78
FC Eindhoven xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven?
FC Volendam 4 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven part of?
FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 35% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 2 | FC Eindhoven 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (1.04x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
35%
2.89
26%
3.85
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.44
1.78
FC Eindhoven xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
6%
17.06
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.78 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 10W 8D 27L from 45 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 17L across 45 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.11 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 6W 2D 14L from 22 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.20 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 10W 8D 27L in their last 45 games (0.84 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 11W 17D 17L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 0.91 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FC Volendam have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-1 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
2
Draws
0
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 50%, FC Eindhoven 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Volendam and 59% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 36% of games; FC Eindhoven in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 54% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Volendam's matches and 59% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat FC Eindhoven 4-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.66 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.78 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.19 / defence 1.17 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 35% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 39%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, FC Eindhoven 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 0.84 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.