FC OSS 2-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong AZ at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Jong AZ at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jong AZ — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC OSS, 3 for Jong AZ and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 43% versus Jong AZ 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 49% | Jong AZ 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.40 xG and Jong AZ 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.786 / defence 1.372 | Jong AZ attack 0.884 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.470. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 FC OSS games / 49 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 28% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 45%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Jong AZ 2.22. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 70% | Jong AZ 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 28% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG FC OSS 1.40 / Jong AZ 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.786 / def 1.372 | Jong AZ attack 0.884 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Jong AZ xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
FC OSS 2 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is FC OSS vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Jong AZ part of?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 28% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC OSS and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Record (6 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
28%
3.51
27%
3.72
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.19
1.78
Jong AZ xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
5%
20.86
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.78 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS come into this having played 49 games, going 12W 7D 30L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.43 PPG from 49 outings (20W 10D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC OSS's home form reads 8W 3D 13L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.04 points per game from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.67 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 7D 30L in their last 49 games (0.88 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 20W 10D 19L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Jong AZ away?
FC OSS's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.12 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 50%, Jong AZ 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC OSS and 71% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC OSS's games and 75% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC OSS's matches and 71% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC OSS and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Jong AZ 2-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.40 xG and Jong AZ 1.78 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.79 / defence 1.37 against Jong AZ attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 28% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 45%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 49%, Jong AZ 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with FC OSS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.