Today's Likely Draw Predictions – Fixtures Most Likely to End in a Draw

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Likely Draw Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest predicted draw probability — Saturday 1 May 2021

Wed 28 Thu 29 Fri 30 Sat 1 Sun 2 Mon 3 Tue 4

Our prediction model uses each team's attack and defence strengths to simulate every possible scoreline. The draw probability sums all equal-score outcomes (0–0, 1–1, 2–2, etc.) from the score matrix. Fixtures at the top of this list show the highest statistical likelihood of ending level — useful for targeting the match draw market. Only fixtures with a predicted draw probability of 25 %+ are shown.

The model shortlists 14 fixtures on Saturday 1 May 2021. Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK led the list at 42% in the Superettan. The shortlist runs from 42% down to 26%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

Superettan supplies four of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.

Of the twelve fixtures on this list that have since finished, seven landed the draw market — 58%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Superettan · Sweden

✓ Under 2.5 77% BTTS No 65%

Primera División · Chile

Under 2.5 73% ✓ BTTS No 61%

Superettan · Sweden

Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 64%

Primera División · Chile

✓ Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 56%

Superettan · Sweden

✓ Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 57%

Superettan · Sweden

✓ Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 61%

Primera División · Chile

K League 1 · South-Korea

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 59%

Allsvenskan · Sweden

✓ Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 57%

#10

Allsvenskan · Sweden

✓ Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 58%

#11

K League 1 · South-Korea

✓ Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#12

K League 1 · South-Korea

#13

Eliteserien · Norway

Over 2.5 56% BTTS Yes 60%

#14

Eliteserien · Norway

Over 2.5 59% BTTS Yes 61%

Showing top 14 fixtures by predicted draw probability (≥ 25%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Tightly Contested Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No

Likely Draw — common questions

What does the Likely Draw market mean?

Likely Draw settles on whether a match finishes level. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate draw probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The draw probability shown here is the sum of every level scoreline — 0–0, 1–1, 2–2 and beyond — in the model's score matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Likely Draw on Saturday 1 May 2021?

14 fixtures met the criteria, led by Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK at 42% draw probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 25% or higher draw probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these draw predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.