Hammarby FF 1-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tele2 Arena plays host to Hammarby FF versus BK Hacken in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hammarby FF have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hammarby FF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
BK Hacken's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
BK Hacken's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Hammarby FF, 1.40 for BK Hacken — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BK Hacken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 67% versus BK Hacken 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 67% | BK Hacken 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.37 xG and BK Hacken 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.114 / defence 0.924 | BK Hacken attack 0.842 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.052. Data: 33 Hammarby FF games / 33 BK Hacken games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 22%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | BK Hacken 4.55. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Hammarby FF 80% | BK Hacken 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Hammarby FF 1.37 / BK Hacken 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.114 / def 0.924 | BK Hacken attack 0.842 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.82
BK Hacken xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Hammarby FF 1 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken part of?
Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 49% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hammarby FF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and BK Hacken in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.11) and BK Hacken's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (0.84x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.43
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.19
0.82
BK Hacken xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
5%
18.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.82 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 10W 11D 9L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
BK Hacken's form line: 12W 13D 5L from 30 games, 1.63 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.63 for BK Hacken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (4W 9D 2L).
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 3W 9D 3L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.50 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: BK Hacken in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 10W 11D 9L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 12W 13D 5L in their last 30 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or BK Hacken away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.40 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-0 on 21 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against BK Hacken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hammarby FF
5
Draws
3
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 2, BK Hacken have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when BK Hacken 3-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 60%, BK Hacken 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hammarby FF) and 40% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken in 33%; BK Hacken in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hammarby FF's games and 60% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 40% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Hammarby FF and BK Hacken drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.37 xG and BK Hacken 0.82 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against BK Hacken attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 22%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 67%, BK Hacken 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.37 PPG, BK Hacken 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.