Suwon Bluewings 1-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings host Pohang Steelers at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Suwon Bluewings, 0 for Pohang Steelers and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2021, ended 3–0 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.18 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.126 / defence 1.173 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.011 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 0.921 / away 1.019. Data: 12 Suwon Bluewings games / 12 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 35% | Draw 29% | Pohang Steelers 36%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Pohang Steelers 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 35% | Draw 29% | Pohang Steelers 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.18 / Pohang Steelers 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.126 / def 1.173 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.011 / def 1.139 | league avg home 0.921 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Pohang Steelers xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 1 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 35% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers?
Record (1 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 0 | Pohang Steelers 0W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Pohang Steelers's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
35%
2.86
29%
3.47
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.39
1.21
Pohang Steelers xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.21 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
4
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers?
From 9 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.18 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 1.13 / defence 1.17 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 35% | Draw 29% | Pohang Steelers 36%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.