Pisa 2-2 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Pisa welcome Vicenza Virtus to Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia.
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Pisa are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Pisa, 0 for Vicenza Virtus and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 50% versus Vicenza Virtus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 23% | Vicenza Virtus 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.21 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.847 / defence 0.958 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.705 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.133. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.474 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Pisa games / 22 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 37% | Vicenza Virtus 20%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | Vicenza Virtus 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 50% | Vicenza Virtus 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 37% | Vicenza Virtus 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Pisa 1.21 / Vicenza Virtus 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.847 / def 0.958 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.705 / def 1.474 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Pisa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Vicenza Virtus xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus?
Pisa 2 - 2 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 43% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 20% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Pisa and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Vicenza Virtus?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Vicenza Virtus 0W.
What form are Pisa and Vicenza Virtus in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.85x the league average against Vicenza Virtus's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
43%
2.32
37%
2.73
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.97
0.77
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Pisa and 0.77 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 11W 8D 3L from 22 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vicenza Virtus, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 16L across 22 games — 0.55 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vicenza Virtus heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 6W 4D 1L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vicenza Virtus's away record stands at 2W 0D 9L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 0.95 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 11W 8D 3L in their last 22 games (1.86 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 3W 3D 16L in their last 22 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Pisa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.00 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Pisa or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pisa
1
Draws
0
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2022, when Pisa 2-2 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Vicenza Virtus?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 46%, Vicenza Virtus 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Pisa) and 54% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Vicenza Virtus in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pisa's recent matches and 46% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Pisa's recent games and 54% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Vicenza Virtus share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Vicenza Virtus finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.21 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.77 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.70 / defence 1.47, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 43% | Draw 37% | Vicenza Virtus 20%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 23%, Vicenza Virtus 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.