Venezia 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Cosenza encounter.

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Analysis

Cosenza make the trip to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie B (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Venezia's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Venezia at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Cosenza (all games): 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Cosenza have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form ledger tips toward Venezia. A 0.70 PPG lead over Cosenza (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Venezia edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Venezia 1–1 Cosenza — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Venezia — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Cosenza — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 62% versus Cosenza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 52% | Cosenza 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Venezia surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Cosenza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.80 xG and Cosenza 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.370 / defence 0.936 | Cosenza attack 0.899 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.018. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.370 — their 1.80 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 39 games and Cosenza's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Venezia 58% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 16%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.73 | Draw 3.82 | Cosenza 6.31. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Venezia 60% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Venezia 39 games, Cosenza 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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