Feralpisalo 0-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sudtirol make the trip to Stadio Leonardo Garilli to face Feralpisalo in Serie B (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form
Feralpisalo (all games): 0W 0D 1L across their last 1 — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Sudtirol have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sudtirol are 1.30 PPG clear of Feralpisalo over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (from Feralpisalo's last 1 games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) — Feralpisalo have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Sudtirol in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 0.92 xG and Sudtirol 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.872 / defence 1.150 | Sudtirol attack 0.943 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.021. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 1 games and Sudtirol's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 27% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 37%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.69 | Draw 2.79 | Sudtirol 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feralpisalo's last 1 games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Feralpisalo 1 games, Sudtirol 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 27% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Feralpisalo 0.92 / Sudtirol 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.872 / def 1.150 | Sudtirol attack 0.943 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sudtirol xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol?
Feralpisalo 0 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol part of?
Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 2) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 27% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 37% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Feralpisalo and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Feralpisalo's attack rating (0.87) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.94x) against Feralpisalo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Feralpisalo's last 1 games and Sudtirol's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
27%
3.69
36%
2.79
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.02
1.11
Sudtirol xG
3.69
27%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.6 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.11 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Feralpisalo have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five.
Sudtirol's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D.
Put side by side, Sudtirol are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Feralpisalo.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 3.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feralpisalo have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Sudtirol in 100%.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
Feralpisalo (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feralpisalo
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Feralpisalo and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Sudtirol?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Feralpisalo have won 0, Sudtirol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 January 2024: Sudtirol 1-0 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feralpisalo and Sudtirol matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 100% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feralpisalo and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 100% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 100% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Feralpisalo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Feralpisalo 0-2 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 0.92 xG and Sudtirol 1.11 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Feralpisalo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sudtirol outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Sudtirol attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 27% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 37%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 0%, Sudtirol 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Sudtirol managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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