Venezia 3-0 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Como in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Venezia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Venezia have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Como (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Como haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Como have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Venezia's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Venezia, 1 for Como and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Como half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 63% versus Como 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Como 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.51 xG and Como 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.215 / defence 1.051 | Como attack 0.966 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.069. Data: 38 Venezia games / 38 Como games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Venezia 45% | Draw 30% | Como 25%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Como 4.00. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 70% | Como 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 45% | Draw 30% | Como 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Venezia 1.51 / Como 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.215 / def 1.051 | Como attack 0.966 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Venezia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Como xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Como kick off?
Venezia vs Como kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Como?
Venezia 3 - 0 Como.
Where is Venezia vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Como part of?
Venezia vs Como is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 45% chance of winning, Como a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Como?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Venezia and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Como?
Record (2 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 0 | Como 1W.
What form are Venezia and Como in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Venezia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 1.22x the league average against Como's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Como's attack (0.97x) against Venezia's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.28
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.60
1.08
Como xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
5%
18.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Venezia and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Venezia and 1.08 for Como, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 10D 15L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. Venezia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (10W 17D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. Como haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Venezia against 1.24 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Venezia's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 0.83 points per game from 18 outings (2W 9D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Como's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.24 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Pre-Season
Como
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Como in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Como have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Como away?
Venezia's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.44 PPG; Como away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Venezia won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Venezia
2
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Como have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Como last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Como 1-1 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 67%, Como 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Venezia) and 39% (Como).
On the defensive side: Como in 33%; Como in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Venezia's games and 50% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Venezia's recent games and 39% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Como tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Como in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Venezia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Como.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Como 3-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.51 xG and Como 1.08 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Como landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.22 / defence 1.05 against Como attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 45% | Draw 30% | Como 25%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Como 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Como's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.29 PPG, Como 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.