Ternana 1-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ternana face Sampdoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Sampdoria in Serie B (matchday 1). Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ternana have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ternana at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ternana are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sampdoria's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Sampdoria have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Ternana against 0.40 for Sampdoria. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 50% versus Sampdoria 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 53% | Sampdoria 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.47 xG and Sampdoria 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.985 / defence 1.128 | Sampdoria attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.035. Data: built from Ternana's last 38 games and Sampdoria's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ternana 46% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 23%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.17 | Draw 3.27 | Sampdoria 4.27. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Ternana's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ternana 70% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Ternana 38 games, Sampdoria 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 1 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 46% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Ternana 1.47 / Sampdoria 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.985 / def 1.128 | Sampdoria attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Ternana (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sampdoria xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ternana vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Ternana vs Sampdoria kick off?
Ternana vs Sampdoria kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Sampdoria?
Ternana 1 - 2 Sampdoria.
Where is Ternana vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Sampdoria part of?
Ternana vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 1) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 46% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ternana and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ternana vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.98) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.85x) against Ternana's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Ternana's last 38 games and Sampdoria's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
46%
2.17
31%
3.27
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.46
0.99
Sampdoria xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ternana vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ternana and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ternana and 0.99 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana's recent record stands at 11W 10D 17L from 38 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 3W 10D 25L across 38 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ternana by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 8W 5D 6L from their last 19 home games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Ternana are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 2W 3D 14L across their last 19 away games, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.63 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Pre-Season
Sampdoria
Pre-Season
Ternana (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ternana
Pre-Season
Sampdoria
Pre-Season
❓ Ternana vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Ternana and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 3W 10D 25L in their last 38 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Sampdoria away?
Ternana's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.53 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Ternana or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ternana
0
Draws
2
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Ternana vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Sampdoria?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ternana have won 0, Sampdoria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 April 2024: Sampdoria 4-1 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 47%, Sampdoria 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ternana) and 53% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sampdoria in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ternana vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ternana and Sampdoria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ternana's recent matches and 42% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ternana and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ternana's recent games and 53% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Ternana's recent matches and 74% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sampdoria defy the odds to beat Ternana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Ternana 1-2 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.47 xG and Sampdoria 0.99 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Sampdoria attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 46% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 23%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Sampdoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 53%, Sampdoria 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Sampdoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.63 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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