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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti.

Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Carrarese away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juve Stabia lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Carrarese winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Carrarese — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 51% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 48% | Carrarese 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.65 xG and Carrarese 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.996 / defence 1.031 | Carrarese attack 0.884 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.121. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Juve Stabia games / 67 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 23%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Carrarese 4.35. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Carrarese 70% BTTS from recent games.

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