Juve Stabia 1-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Carrarese away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juve Stabia lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Carrarese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Carrarese — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 51% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 48% | Carrarese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.65 xG and Carrarese 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.996 / defence 1.031 | Carrarese attack 0.884 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.121. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Juve Stabia games / 67 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 23%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Carrarese 4.35. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Carrarese 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Juve Stabia 1.65 / Carrarese 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.996 / def 1.031 | Carrarese attack 0.884 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Carrarese xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Carrarese kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Juve Stabia 1 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Carrarese part of?
Juve Stabia vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 51% chance of winning, Carrarese a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Juve Stabia and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Carrarese?
Record (3 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Carrarese in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Carrarese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.88x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.88
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.67
1.02
Carrarese xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
22.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.02 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 25D 19L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Carrarese's form line: 18W 23D 26L from 67 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.15 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.88 PPG from 33 outings (17W 11D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 3W 12D 18L from 33 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.10 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Carrarese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 23W 25D 19L in their last 67 games (1.40 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 18W 23D 26L in their last 67 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Carrarese away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.88 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Carrarese in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Carrarese won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Juve Stabia 1-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 46%, Carrarese 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Juve Stabia) and 52% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Carrarese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 64% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 52% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Carrarese tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia and Carrarese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia and Carrarese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.65 xG and Carrarese 1.02 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Carrarese attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 23%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 48%, Carrarese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Carrarese's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG, Carrarese 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.