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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella encounter.

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Match Analysis

Sudtirol host Virtus Entella at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Sudtirol — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Marco Druso this season.

Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Virtus Entella away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Sudtirol have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sudtirol have won 0, Virtus Entella 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Virtus Entella in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 54% versus Virtus Entella 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 39% | Virtus Entella 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.54 xG and Virtus Entella 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.945 / defence 0.783 | Virtus Entella attack 0.582 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.155. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Sudtirol games / 28 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 61% | Draw 27% | Virtus Entella 11%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 1.64 | Draw 3.70 | Virtus Entella 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Sudtirol (61%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Virtus Entella's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Virtus Entella 40% BTTS from recent games.

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