Sudtirol 1-3 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sudtirol face Frosinone.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Frosinone in Serie B (matchday 32). Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sudtirol's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Frosinone (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Frosinone have posted 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Sudtirol edge it 1 wins to 0, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Sudtirol 2–2 Frosinone — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 55% versus Frosinone 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Frosinone 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sudtirol surrender their half-time lead 37% of the time, while Frosinone have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.92 xG and Frosinone 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.727 / defence 0.801 | Frosinone attack 1.327 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.093. Sudtirol's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Frosinone have an above-average attack rating of 1.327, which lifts their away xG to 1.16. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 69 games and Frosinone's last 69.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 27% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 40%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.68 | Draw 3.04 | Frosinone 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 40% (last 10 home games) | Frosinone 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 27% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Sudtirol 0.92 / Frosinone 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.727 / def 0.801 | Frosinone attack 1.327 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Frosinone xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sudtirol vs Frosinone FAQs
What time does Sudtirol vs Frosinone kick off?
Sudtirol vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Sudtirol 1 - 3 Frosinone.
Where is Sudtirol vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Frosinone part of?
Sudtirol vs Frosinone is a Serie B fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 27% chance of winning, Frosinone a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sudtirol and Frosinone will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Sudtirol vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.33x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Sudtirol's last 69 games and Frosinone's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
27%
3.68
33%
3.04
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.08
1.16
Frosinone xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.6 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sudtirol vs Frosinone Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.16 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 20W 24D 25L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Frosinone's form line: 26W 27D 16L from 69 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.52 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 34 home games (11W 12D 11L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 13W 13D 8L from their last 34 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.39 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
Sudtirol (Home) vs Frosinone (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sudtirol
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Sudtirol vs Frosinone Form FAQs
What form are Sudtirol and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 20W 24D 25L in their last 69 games (1.22 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 26W 27D 16L in their last 69 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.32 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won Frosinone 0-3 Sudtirol on 25 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
4
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Sudtirol vs Frosinone H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Frosinone?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sudtirol have won 1, Frosinone have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Frosinone last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Sudtirol 1-3 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 62%, Frosinone 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 38% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sudtirol vs Frosinone Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sudtirol and Frosinone matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sudtirol's games and 53% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sudtirol and Frosinone matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 38% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Frosinone matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 74% of Frosinone's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Sudtirol 1-3 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.92 xG and Frosinone 1.16 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.73 / defence 0.80 against Frosinone attack 1.33 / defence 0.92, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 27% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 40%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Frosinone 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.22 PPG, Frosinone 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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