Parma 3-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 16 as Parma welcome Palermo to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Parma — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Ennio Tardini this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Parma carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Parma, 1 for Palermo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Parma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Palermo in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 47% versus Palermo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 42% | Palermo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.09 xG and Palermo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.148 / defence 0.784 | Palermo attack 1.071 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.126. Parma's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Parma games / 53 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 37% | Draw 33% | Palermo 30%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Palermo 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | Palermo 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 37% | Draw 33% | Palermo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Parma 1.09 / Palermo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.148 / def 0.784 | Palermo attack 1.071 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Parma (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Palermo xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Palermo kick off?
Parma vs Palermo kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Palermo?
Parma 3 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Parma vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Palermo part of?
Parma vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 37% chance of winning, Palermo a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Parma and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Palermo?
Record (2 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 0 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Parma and Palermo in?
Parma (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Palermo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
37%
2.68
33%
3.03
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Parma xG
Total xG
2.03
0.94
Palermo xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Parma and 0.94 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma's recent record stands at 27W 12D 14L from 53 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 16L across 53 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.75 PPG, Palermo on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Parma have managed 15W 5D 6L from 26 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 7W 10D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.28 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Palermo in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 27W 12D 14L in their last 53 games (1.75 PPG), while Palermo have gone 18W 19D 16L in their last 53 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Palermo away?
Parma's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.92 PPG; Palermo away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Parma or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Palermo in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Parma's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Palermo 0-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 42%, Palermo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Parma) and 42% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Parma have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Parma's recent matches and 62% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Parma's recent games and 42% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Palermo tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Palermo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Palermo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma and Palermo finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.09 xG and Palermo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.15 / defence 0.78 against Palermo attack 1.07 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 37% | Draw 33% | Palermo 30%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 42%, Palermo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.75 PPG, Palermo 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Parma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.