Reggina 1-2 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ascoli at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Ascoli travel to Stadio Oreste Granillo to take on Reggina. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 30 November 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggina have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 games at Stadio Oreste Granillo this term (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ascoli — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's away record: 4W 2D 1L from 7 road trips in Serie B this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reggina 1.40 PPG, Ascoli 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Reggina trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ascoli trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 43% versus Ascoli 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 36% | Ascoli 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.07 xG and Ascoli 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.916 / defence 1.137 | Ascoli attack 0.994 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.155. Data: 14 Reggina games / 14 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 29% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 41%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Ascoli 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Reggina 57% | Ascoli 71% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 29% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Reggina 1.07 / Ascoli 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.916 / def 1.137 | Ascoli attack 0.994 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Ascoli xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Ascoli kick off?
Reggina vs Ascoli kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Ascoli?
Reggina 1 - 2 Ascoli.
Where is Reggina vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Ascoli part of?
Reggina vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 29% chance of winning, Ascoli a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Reggina and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Ascoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Ascoli in?
Reggina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reggina's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
29%
3.41
30%
3.37
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.37
1.31
Ascoli xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
8%
12.59
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Reggina and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Reggina and 1.31 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggina's recent record stands at 6W 4D 4L from 14 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 4L across 14 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggina on 1.57 PPG, Ascoli on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 4W 2D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — Ascoli travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggina are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.36 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli in 64%.
Defensively: Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 games (1.57 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.57 PPG; Ascoli away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Reggina or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ascoli in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Reggina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Reggina's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggina
0
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 2, Ascoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Reggina 1-0 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 57%, Ascoli 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Reggina) and 57% (Ascoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggina have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Reggina's games and 71% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggina vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Reggina's matches and 57% of Ascoli's.
Do Reggina and Ascoli tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ascoli edge out Reggina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Reggina 1-2 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.07 xG and Ascoli 1.31 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Ascoli attack 0.99 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 29% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 41%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 36%, Ascoli 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ascoli's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.57 PPG, Ascoli 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.