Ternana 1-0 Crotone – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ternana at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Crotone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Crotone travel to Stadio Libero Liberati to take on Ternana. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 November 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ternana — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Serie B appearances (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Crotone have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Crotone have posted 0W 1D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Ternana have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Ternana in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Crotone in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ternana 64% and Crotone 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 57% | Crotone 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.82 xG and Crotone 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.188 / defence 1.206 | Crotone attack 0.691 / defence 1.523. League average goals — home 1.008 / away 1.167. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.523 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Ternana games / 14 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 57% | Draw 24% | Crotone 19%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Crotone 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ternana (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 57% | Crotone 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 57% | Draw 24% | Crotone 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Ternana 1.82 / Crotone 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.188 / def 1.206 | Crotone attack 0.691 / def 1.523 | league avg home 1.008 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Ternana (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Crotone xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Crotone kick off?
Ternana vs Crotone kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 29 November 2021 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Crotone?
Ternana 1 - 0 Crotone.
Where is Ternana vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Crotone part of?
Ternana vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 57% chance of winning, Crotone a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ternana and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Crotone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Crotone in?
Ternana (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Crotone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ternana's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Crotone's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Crotone's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.17
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.80
0.97
Crotone xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
3%
32.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ternana and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Ternana and 0.97 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Crotone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 5W 3D 6L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crotone's form line: 1W 5D 8L from 14 games, 0.57 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ternana are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crotone.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Crotone have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ternana are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 0.93 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Crotone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Crotone in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Crotone have gone 1W 5D 8L in their last 14 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Crotone away?
Ternana's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.67 PPG; Crotone away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ternana and Crotone runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ternana
0
Draws
0
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Ternana have won 2, Crotone have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Crotone 1-2 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Crotone?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 67%, Crotone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Ternana) and 50% (Crotone). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Crotone in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Crotone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ternana's games and 50% of Crotone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ternana vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ternana's matches and 50% of Crotone's.
Do Ternana and Crotone tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Crotone in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ternana edge out Crotone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Crotone 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.82 xG and Crotone 0.97 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ternana fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Crotone landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.19 / defence 1.21 against Crotone attack 0.69 / defence 1.52, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 57% | Draw 24% | Crotone 19%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 57%, Crotone 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Crotone's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Crotone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.