Sampdoria vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sudtirol (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sampdoria face Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sudtirol arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sampdoria lead 2W to 4W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 54% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sampdoria 43% | Sudtirol 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.33 xG and Sudtirol 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.991 / defence 1.016 | Sudtirol attack 1.167 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Data: 44 Sampdoria games / 44 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 32% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Sudtirol 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 40% | Sudtirol 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 32% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sampdoria 1.33 / Sudtirol 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.991 / def 1.016 | Sudtirol attack 1.167 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Sudtirol xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Sudtirol kick off?
Sampdoria vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol part of?
Sampdoria vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 32% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sampdoria and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
Record (6 meetings): Sampdoria 2W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 4W.
What form are Sampdoria and Sudtirol in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.99) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.17x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
32%
3.08
27%
3.68
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.84
1.51
Sudtirol xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.51 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sampdoria come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 12D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.16 PPG from 44 outings (10W 21D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.16 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sampdoria's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (4W 10D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 0.98 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 10W 21D 13L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Sudtirol away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.67 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sampdoria
0
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 2, Sudtirol have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 48%, Sudtirol 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sampdoria) and 38% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 29% of games; Sudtirol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 52% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sampdoria's recent games and 38% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.