Padova vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Padova at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Padova vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Padova host Pisa at Stadio Euganeo in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Padova — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova at Stadio Euganeo this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Padova have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Padova, 0 for Pisa and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Padova winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Padova in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 50% versus Pisa 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 38% | Pisa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.39 xG and Pisa 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.896 / defence 0.956 | Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Padova games / 2 Pisa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Padova 46% | Draw 29% | Pisa 25%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Pisa 4.00. Padova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Padova at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Padova 50% | Pisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 46% | Draw 29% | Pisa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Padova 1.39 / Pisa 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.896 / def 0.956 | Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Padova (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Pisa xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Pisa kick off?
Padova vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Pisa part of?
Padova vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 46% chance of winning, Pisa a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Padova and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Padova 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Padova and Pisa in?
Padova (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Padova's attack at 0.90x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.39
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Padova xG
Total xG
2.35
0.96
Pisa xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Padova and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Padova and 0.96 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Padova have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 13W 11D 16L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa's form line: 3W 12D 25L from 40 games, 0.52 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Padova are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pisa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (6W 8D 5L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 0W 8D 11L from 19 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Padova are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.70 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Pisa in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Pisa have gone 3W 12D 25L in their last 40 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Pisa away?
Padova's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.37 PPG; Pisa away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Padova
0
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Pisa?
From 1 meetings on record, Padova have won 1, Pisa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Pisa 0-1 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Pisa?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 63%, Pisa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Padova) and 68% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Padova's games and 53% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Padova's recent games and 68% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Pisa tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Pisa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.