Sudtirol vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 36%, yet in-form Padova provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sudtirol vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Padova make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Padova are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sudtirol 1W, Padova 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 3–0 with Sudtirol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Padova — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 50% versus Padova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 35% | Padova 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.11 xG and Padova 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.888 / defence 0.892 | Padova attack 0.971 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Sudtirol games / 40 Padova games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 36% | Draw 32% | Padova 32%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Padova 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Padova (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Padova 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 36% | Draw 32% | Padova 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Sudtirol 1.11 / Padova 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.888 / def 0.892 | Padova attack 0.971 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Padova xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Padova kick off?
Sudtirol vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Padova part of?
Sudtirol vs Padova is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 36% chance of winning, Padova a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sudtirol and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Padova?
Record (2 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 1 | Padova 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Padova in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Padova (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.89x the league average against Padova's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Padova's attack (0.97x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
36%
2.77
32%
3.12
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.13
1.02
Padova xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.02 for Padova, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sudtirol come into this having played 40 games, going 8W 19D 13L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Padova sit at 1.25 PPG from 40 outings (13W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.25 for Padova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sudtirol's home form reads 5W 8D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Padova have taken 1.20 points per game from 20 outings (7W 3D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.02 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Padova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Padova in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 8W 19D 13L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Padova have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Padova away?
Padova's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.15 PPG; Padova away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
1
Draws
0
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Padova have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Sudtirol 3-0 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Padova?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 45%, Padova 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Sudtirol) and 40% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 45% of games; Padova in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 40% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Sudtirol's recent games and 40% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Padova tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Padova in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.