Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 37 as Sudtirol welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sudtirol have posted 1W 6D 3L at Stadio Marco Druso — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sudtirol 0.90 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 2 for Juve Stabia and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 52% versus Juve Stabia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 36% | Juve Stabia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.12 xG and Juve Stabia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.890 / defence 0.894 | Juve Stabia attack 0.959 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Sudtirol games / 40 Juve Stabia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 31%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Juve Stabia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 40% | Juve Stabia 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Sudtirol 1.12 / Juve Stabia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.890 / def 0.894 | Juve Stabia attack 0.959 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Juve Stabia xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia part of?
Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 37% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sudtirol and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.89x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.12
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.13
1.01
Juve Stabia xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.01 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 9W 20D 13L from 42 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 11L across 42 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.12 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 6W 8D 7L from 21 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 4W 8D 9L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.17 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 9W 20D 13L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 13W 18D 11L in their last 42 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Juve Stabia away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.24 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 48%, Juve Stabia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sudtirol) and 52% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 43% of games; Juve Stabia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 57% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sudtirol's recent games and 52% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.