Modena vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Modena carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Modena, 2 for Cremonese and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2026, ended 3–0 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Modena in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 54% versus Cremonese 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 54% | Cremonese 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.65 xG and Cremonese 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.207 / defence 0.912 | Cremonese attack 0.748 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.279. Data: 48 Modena games / 10 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 54% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 18%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Cremonese 5.56. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 54% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Modena 1.65 / Cremonese 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.207 / def 0.912 | Cremonese attack 0.748 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Modena (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Cremonese xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Cremonese kick off?
Modena vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cremonese part of?
Modena vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 54% chance of winning, Cremonese a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Modena and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cremonese?
Record (5 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Modena and Cremonese in?
Modena (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.21) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.62
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Modena xG
Total xG
2.52
0.87
Cremonese xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
4%
28.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Modena and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Modena and 0.87 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 12D 16L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 0.96 PPG from 48 outings (11W 13D 24L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Cremonese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 12W 4D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.88 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 11W 13D 24L in their last 48 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cremonese away?
Modena's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.67 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Modena or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cremonese in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Cremonese runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Dec 2023, when Cremonese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Modena
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cremonese?
From 5 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Cremonese 0-3 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 54%, Cremonese 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Modena) and 42% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cremonese in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Modena's recent matches and 33% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Modena's recent games and 42% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cremonese tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.