Ascoli 1-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Ascoli welcome Sudtirol to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sudtirol — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ascoli 1.00 PPG, Sudtirol 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ascoli, 1 for Sudtirol and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Sudtirol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 37% | Sudtirol 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.16 xG and Sudtirol 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.827 / defence 1.001 | Sudtirol attack 0.996 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.194. Data: 60 Ascoli games / 60 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 35% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 36%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Sudtirol 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ascoli 40% | Sudtirol 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 35% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Ascoli 1.16 / Sudtirol 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.827 / def 1.001 | Sudtirol attack 0.996 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sudtirol xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Sudtirol kick off?
Ascoli vs Sudtirol kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Ascoli 1 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Ascoli vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Sudtirol part of?
Ascoli vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 35% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ascoli and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
Record (3 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Ascoli and Sudtirol in?
Ascoli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.38
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.35
1.19
Sudtirol xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.19 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 18D 25L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.47 PPG from 60 outings (22W 22D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.15 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ascoli's home form reads 9W 9D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.45 points per game from 29 outings (11W 9D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.12 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 17W 18D 25L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 22W 22D 16L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.24 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sudtirol have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Ascoli's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Ascoli 1-2 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 48%, Sudtirol 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Ascoli) and 31% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sudtirol in 41%; Ascoli have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ascoli's recent matches and 45% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Ascoli's recent games and 31% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Ascoli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Ascoli 1-2 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.16 xG and Sudtirol 1.19 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Sudtirol attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 35% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 36%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 37%, Sudtirol 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.15 PPG, Sudtirol 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.