Sampdoria 0-2 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sampdoria at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Bari meet at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sampdoria's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sampdoria at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Sampdoria are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bari (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bari have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Sampdoria. A 1.00 PPG lead over Bari (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sampdoria's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) — Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bari in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Sampdoria edge it 1 wins to 0, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Sampdoria 1–1 Bari — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 53% versus Bari 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sampdoria 39% | Bari 39%). Note also that Bari surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Sampdoria recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.53 xG and Bari 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.050 / defence 1.000 | Bari attack 0.791 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.103. Bari's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Sampdoria's last 64 games and Bari's last 64.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 52% | Draw 27% | Bari 21%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.91 | Draw 3.74 | Bari 4.76. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sampdoria 60% (last 10 home games) | Bari 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 52% | Draw 27% | Bari 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Sampdoria 1.53 / Bari 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.050 / def 1.000 | Bari attack 0.791 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Bari xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sampdoria vs Bari FAQs
What time does Sampdoria vs Bari kick off?
Sampdoria vs Bari kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Bari?
Sampdoria 0 - 2 Bari.
Where is Sampdoria vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Bari part of?
Sampdoria vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 52% chance of winning, Bari a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sampdoria and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Sampdoria vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (1.05) and Bari's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.79x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Sampdoria's last 64 games and Bari's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.74
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.40
0.87
Bari xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
5%
22.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sampdoria vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.87 for Bari, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 24D 24L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Bari's form line: 14W 28D 22L from 64 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.09 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 32 home games (13W 11D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bari have gone 4W 14D 14L from their last 32 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 0.97 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Bari
Blended
Sampdoria (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sampdoria
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Sampdoria vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Sampdoria and Bari in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 16W 24D 24L in their last 64 games (1.12 PPG), while Bari have gone 14W 28D 22L in their last 64 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Bari away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.56 PPG; Bari away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
4
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Sampdoria vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Bari?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sampdoria have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Sampdoria 0-2 Bari.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 38%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Sampdoria and 41% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 31% of games; Bari in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sampdoria vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sampdoria and Bari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 50% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sampdoria and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sampdoria's recent games and 41% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 66% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Sampdoria 0-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.53 xG and Bari 0.87 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bari outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Bari attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 52% | Draw 27% | Bari 21%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Bari 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.12 PPG, Bari 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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