Bari 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 28 as Bari welcome Empoli to Stadio San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio San Nicola this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Empoli — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Bari) versus 0.80 (Empoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bari, 1 for Empoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–5 with Empoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bari trading profile (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Empoli trading profile (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 55% versus Empoli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 38% | Empoli 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.12 xG and Empoli 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.720 / defence 1.117 | Empoli attack 0.936 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.146. Bari's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Bari games / 27 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 33% | Draw 31% | Empoli 36%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Empoli 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 50% | Empoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 33% | Draw 31% | Empoli 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Bari 1.12 / Empoli 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.720 / def 1.117 | Empoli attack 0.936 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Empoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Empoli xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Empoli kick off?
Bari vs Empoli kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Empoli?
Bari 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Bari vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Empoli part of?
Bari vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 33% chance of winning, Empoli a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bari and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 0W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Bari and Empoli in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Empoli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bari's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
33%
3.04
31%
3.26
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Bari xG
Total xG
2.32
1.20
Empoli xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bari and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Bari and 1.20 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Bari have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 15W 28D 22L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli's form line: 13W 23D 29L from 65 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.12 PPG, Empoli on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (10W 14D 7L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 8W 7D 16L from 31 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.02 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Empoli in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 15W 28D 22L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 23D 29L in their last 65 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Empoli away?
Bari's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.42 PPG; Empoli away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bari
0
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Empoli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Bari 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 61%, Empoli 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bari) and 61% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Bari's games and 61% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bari's recent games and 61% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Empoli tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Empoli in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bari defy the odds to beat Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.12 xG and Empoli 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.72 / defence 1.12 against Empoli attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 33% | Draw 31% | Empoli 36%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 38%, Empoli 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.12 PPG, Empoli 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.