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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Juve Stabia host Sampdoria at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Juve Stabia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sampdoria's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.60 PPG, Sampdoria 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Juve Stabia have won 1, Sampdoria 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Sampdoria winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 50% versus Sampdoria 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 48% | Sampdoria 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.42 xG and Sampdoria 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.047 / defence 1.020 | Sampdoria attack 0.827 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.146. Data: 65 Juve Stabia games / 65 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 24%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Sampdoria 4.17. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 40% | Sampdoria 70%.

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