Sampdoria 2-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sampdoria face Ascoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ascoli travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria in Serie B (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Monday 11 March 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sampdoria have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ascoli stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ascoli's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 1.20 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Sampdoria, 0 for Ascoli and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Sampdoria 1–1 Ascoli — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ascoli in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 54% versus Ascoli 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 48% | Ascoli 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.08 xG and Ascoli 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.902 / defence 1.286 | Ascoli attack 0.921 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.227. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.286 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ascoli's projected output up. Data: built from Sampdoria's last 28 games and Ascoli's last 66.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 27% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 45%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.67 | Draw 3.56 | Ascoli 2.24. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sampdoria 60% (last 10 home games) | Ascoli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 11 March 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 27% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Sampdoria 1.08 / Ascoli 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.902 / def 1.286 | Ascoli attack 0.921 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Ascoli xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sampdoria vs Ascoli FAQs
What time does Sampdoria vs Ascoli kick off?
Sampdoria vs Ascoli kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Monday 11 March 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Ascoli?
Sampdoria 2 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Sampdoria vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Ascoli part of?
Sampdoria vs Ascoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 27% chance of winning, Ascoli a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sampdoria and Ascoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sampdoria vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.90x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sampdoria's last 28 games and Ascoli's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
27%
3.67
28%
3.56
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.54
1.45
Ascoli xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
6%
15.70
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sampdoria vs Ascoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.45 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 13W 16D 37L from 66 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 27L across 66 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 0.83 PPG, Ascoli on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 5W 10D 18L from their last 33 home games — 0.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 9W 9D 15L across their last 33 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.02 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
Sampdoria (Home) vs Ascoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sampdoria
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
❓ Sampdoria vs Ascoli Form FAQs
What form are Sampdoria and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 13W 16D 37L in their last 66 games (0.83 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 18W 21D 27L in their last 66 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.76 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 27 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Sampdoria vs Ascoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Ascoli?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Sampdoria have won 1, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Ascoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2026: Ascoli 2-0 Sampdoria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 64% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 52%, Ascoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sampdoria) and 33% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 39% of games; Ascoli in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sampdoria vs Ascoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sampdoria and Ascoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 48% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sampdoria and Ascoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sampdoria's recent games and 33% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Ascoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 67% of Ascoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sampdoria defy the odds to beat Ascoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Ascoli 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.08 xG and Ascoli 1.45 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.90 / defence 1.29 against Ascoli attack 0.92 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 27% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 45%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 48%, Ascoli 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.83 PPG, Ascoli 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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