Feralpisalo 1-3 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feralpisalo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sampdoria make the trip to Stadio Leonardo Garilli to face Feralpisalo in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feralpisalo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Feralpisalo have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Leonardo Garilli — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Feralpisalo against 0.90 for Sampdoria. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Feralpisalo, 0 for Sampdoria and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with Feralpisalo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 48% versus Sampdoria 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 52% | Sampdoria 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.66 xG and Sampdoria 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 1.004 / defence 1.142 | Sampdoria attack 1.048 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.238. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Feralpisalo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Feralpisalo games / 27 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 40% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 33%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Sampdoria 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feralpisalo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feralpisalo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Feralpisalo 50% | Sampdoria 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 40% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Feralpisalo 1.66 / Sampdoria 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 1.004 / def 1.142 | Sampdoria attack 1.048 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Feralpisalo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sampdoria xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria?
Feralpisalo 1 - 3 Sampdoria.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria part of?
Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 40% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Feralpisalo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Feralpisalo and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Feralpisalo 1W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Feralpisalo and Sampdoria in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Feralpisalo's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (1.05x) against Feralpisalo's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feralpisalo Win
40%
2.47
27%
3.75
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
3.14
1.48
Sampdoria xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
6%
15.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.48 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feralpisalo come into this having played 27 games, going 6W 6D 15L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (9W 6D 12L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Feralpisalo against 1.22 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Feralpisalo's home form reads 3W 3D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 1.38 points per game from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feralpisalo are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.30 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 6W 6D 15L in their last 27 games (0.89 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 9W 6D 12L in their last 27 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Sampdoria away?
Sampdoria's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.92 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Sampdoria?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 1, Sampdoria have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Feralpisalo 1-3 Sampdoria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 46%, Sampdoria 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Feralpisalo) and 54% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Feralpisalo's games and 77% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feralpisalo vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 54% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Feralpisalo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Feralpisalo 1-3 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.66 xG and Sampdoria 1.48 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sampdoria outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against Sampdoria attack 1.05 / defence 1.28, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 40% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 33%, with Feralpisalo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 52%, Sampdoria 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feralpisalo 0.89 PPG, Sampdoria 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.