Pisa 1-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ternana at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Ternana at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ternana away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.30 PPG versus Ternana's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Pisa, 1 for Ternana and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Ternana in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 59% versus Ternana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 46% | Ternana 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.52 xG and Ternana 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.031 / defence 1.114 | Ternana attack 1.153 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.248. Data: 66 Pisa games / 66 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 35% | Draw 27% | Ternana 38%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Ternana 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 70% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 35% | Draw 27% | Ternana 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Pisa 1.52 / Ternana 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.031 / def 1.114 | Ternana attack 1.153 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Ternana (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Ternana xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Ternana kick off?
Pisa vs Ternana kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Ternana?
Pisa 1 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Pisa vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Ternana part of?
Pisa vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 35% chance of winning, Ternana a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Pisa and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Ternana?
Record (5 meetings): Pisa 2W | Draws 2 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Pisa and Ternana in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Ternana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pisa's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
35%
2.87
27%
3.74
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Pisa xG
Total xG
3.12
1.60
Ternana xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
7%
14.26
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Pisa and 1.60 for Ternana, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 19W 24D 23L from 66 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 30L across 66 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.23 PPG, Ternana on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 10W 10D 12L from 32 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 7W 7D 18L across 32 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.08 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Ternana in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 19W 24D 23L in their last 66 games (1.23 PPG), while Ternana have gone 18W 18D 30L in their last 66 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Ternana away?
Pisa's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.25 PPG; Ternana away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Pisa or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ternana in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2021, when Pisa won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pisa
2
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Ternana have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Pisa 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Ternana?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 66%, Ternana 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Pisa) and 66% (Ternana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ternana in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Pisa's games and 62% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Pisa's matches and 66% of Ternana's.
Do Pisa and Ternana tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Ternana in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Ternana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Ternana 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.52 xG and Ternana 1.60 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ternana landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against Ternana attack 1.15 / defence 1.17, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 35% | Draw 27% | Ternana 38%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 46%, Ternana 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ternana's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.23 PPG, Ternana 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.