Lecco 0-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecco vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lecco host Palermo at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecco stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lecco's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Lecco are significantly better at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palermo's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palermo — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lecco, 0 for Palermo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Lecco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lecco in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 54% versus Palermo 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 57% | Palermo 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 1.26 xG and Palermo 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.787 / defence 1.533 | Palermo attack 1.205 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.236. Lecco's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Lecco's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Palermo have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 2.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Lecco games / 66 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecco 19% | Draw 21% | Palermo 60%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | Palermo 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lecco 50% | Palermo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 19% | Draw 21% | Palermo 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Lecco 1.26 / Palermo 2.28 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.787 / def 1.533 | Palermo attack 1.205 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Palermo (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
2.28
Palermo xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecco vs Palermo kick off?
Lecco vs Palermo kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Palermo?
Lecco 0 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Lecco vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Palermo part of?
Lecco vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 19% chance of winning, Palermo a 60% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lecco and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Lecco vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Lecco 1W | Draws 0 | Palermo 0W.
What form are Lecco and Palermo in?
Lecco (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Palermo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lecco's attack at 0.79x the league average against Palermo's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Lecco's defence, projects 2.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
19%
5.17
21%
4.76
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Lecco xG
Total xG
3.54
2.28
Palermo xG
5.17
19%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
10%
9.80
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
2%
50.63
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Lecco and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Lecco and 2.28 for Palermo, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Palermo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecco come into this having played 28 games, going 5W 6D 17L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (13W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Lecco — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lecco's home form reads 3W 1D 9L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.54 points per game from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lecco are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.82 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecco and Palermo in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 5W 6D 17L in their last 28 games (0.75 PPG), while Palermo have gone 13W 7D 8L in their last 28 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 0.77 PPG; Palermo away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lecco
0
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecco have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when Lecco 0-1 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 54%, Palermo 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lecco) and 54% (Palermo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecco have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecco play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lecco's games and 69% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecco vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lecco's matches and 54% of Palermo's.
Do Lecco and Palermo tend to score early?
Lecco have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Palermo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Lecco 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Lecco 0-1 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 1.26 xG and Palermo 2.28 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lecco fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Palermo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.79 / defence 1.53 against Palermo attack 1.21 / defence 1.28, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 19% | Draw 21% | Palermo 60%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 57%, Palermo 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Lecco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.