Parma 2-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 29 as Parma welcome Brescia to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brescia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Brescia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Parma have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Parma, 2 for Brescia and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Brescia in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 52% versus Brescia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 46% | Brescia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.50 xG and Brescia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.262 / defence 0.961 | Brescia attack 0.872 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.243. Parma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 Parma games / 66 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Brescia 25%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Brescia 4.00. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Parma 90% | Brescia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Brescia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Parma 1.50 / Brescia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.262 / def 0.961 | Brescia attack 0.872 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Parma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Brescia xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Brescia kick off?
Parma vs Brescia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Brescia?
Parma 2 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Parma vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Brescia part of?
Parma vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 46% chance of winning, Brescia a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Parma and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Brescia?
Record (5 meetings): Parma 3W | Draws 0 | Brescia 2W.
What form are Parma and Brescia in?
Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Brescia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.43
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Parma xG
Total xG
2.54
1.04
Brescia xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Parma and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Parma and 1.04 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma come into this having played 68 games, going 34W 19D 15L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.16 PPG from 68 outings (18W 25D 25L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Brescia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Parma's home form reads 19W 9D 6L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 1.00 points per game from 34 outings (7W 13D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.00 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Brescia in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 34W 19D 15L in their last 68 games (1.78 PPG), while Brescia have gone 18W 25D 25L in their last 68 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Brescia away?
Parma's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.94 PPG; Brescia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Parma or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Brescia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Parma's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Parma
0
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 4, Brescia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Parma 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Brescia?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 53%, Brescia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Parma) and 38% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Brescia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Parma's recent matches and 53% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Parma's recent games and 38% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Brescia tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Brescia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Brescia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Brescia 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.50 xG and Brescia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.26 / defence 0.96 against Brescia attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Brescia 25%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 46%, Brescia 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Brescia's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.