Sudtirol 2-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 4 as Sudtirol welcome Pisa to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 0W 0D 3L from 3 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pisa — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Pisa trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 33% versus Pisa 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sudtirol 67% | Pisa 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.42 xG and Pisa 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.841 / defence 1.272 | Pisa attack 1.182 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.086. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Sudtirol games / 41 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 33% | Draw 24% | Pisa 42%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Pisa 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 33% | Pisa 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 33% | Draw 24% | Pisa 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Sudtirol 1.42 / Pisa 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.841 / def 1.272 | Pisa attack 1.182 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Pisa xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Pisa kick off?
Sudtirol vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Sudtirol 2 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Sudtirol vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Pisa part of?
Sudtirol vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 33% chance of winning, Pisa a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sudtirol and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
33%
3.01
24%
4.11
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
3.05
1.63
Pisa xG
3.01
33%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
6%
15.40
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.63 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 0.00 PPG, Pisa on 0.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sudtirol's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Pisa 3-3 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 33%, Pisa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sudtirol and 67% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 67% of games; Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 67% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sudtirol's matches and 67% of Pisa's.
Do Sudtirol and Pisa tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pisa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Pisa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Pisa 2-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.42 xG and Pisa 1.63 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.84 / defence 1.27 against Pisa attack 1.18 / defence 1.25, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 33% | Draw 24% | Pisa 42%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 67%, Pisa 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 0.00 PPG, Pisa 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.