Reggina 0-0 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Frosinone at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reggina and Frosinone meet at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggina have posted 2W 1D 0L at Stadio Oreste Granillo — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Reggina are significantly better at Stadio Oreste Granillo than their overall form suggests.
Frosinone have collected 1.80 PPG across 5 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 0L. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Reggina — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Frosinone — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reggina 80% and Frosinone 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 40% | Frosinone 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.11 xG and Frosinone 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.084 / defence 1.068 | Frosinone attack 0.963 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.468. Data: 5 Reggina games / 5 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 25% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 44%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Frosinone 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reggina 67% | Frosinone 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 25% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Reggina 1.11 / Frosinone 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.084 / def 1.068 | Frosinone attack 0.963 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Frosinone xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Frosinone kick off?
Reggina vs Frosinone kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Frosinone?
Reggina 0 - 0 Frosinone.
Where is Reggina vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Frosinone part of?
Reggina vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 25% chance of winning, Frosinone a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Reggina and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Frosinone in?
Reggina (all comps): 2W-3D-0L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Frosinone (all comps): 2W-3D-0L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Reggina's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.96x) against Reggina's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
25%
3.96
31%
3.24
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.62
1.51
Frosinone xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
6%
17.90
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Reggina and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Reggina and 1.51 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggina's recent record stands at 2W 3D 0L from 5 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Frosinone, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 0L across 5 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Reggina against 1.80 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Reggina are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Reggina have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: Frosinone in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Early Season
Frosinone
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Reggina or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Frosinone in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Frosinone have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggina have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Reggina
1
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 0, Frosinone have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Frosinone 3-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 80%, Frosinone 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Reggina) and 40% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Reggina's games and 40% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggina vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Reggina's recent games and 40% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Frosinone tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reggina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 6, as Reggina and Frosinone drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.11 xG and Frosinone 1.51 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reggina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Frosinone landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against Frosinone attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 25% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 44%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 40%, Frosinone 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Frosinone's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.80 PPG, Frosinone 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggina managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.