Cosenza 1-0 Crotone – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cosenza at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Crotone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cosenza and Crotone meet at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crotone (all games): 0W 3D 2L across 5 Serie B outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Crotone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Cosenza. A 0.80 PPG lead over Crotone (1.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Cosenza have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Crotone in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Crotone half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cosenza 60% and Crotone 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 40% | Crotone 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.80 xG and Crotone 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.097 / defence 0.947 | Crotone attack 0.986 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.441. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Cosenza games / 5 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 28% | Crotone 26%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Crotone 3.85. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 60% | Crotone 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 28% | Crotone 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Cosenza 1.80 / Crotone 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.097 / def 0.947 | Crotone attack 0.986 / def 1.462 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Crotone xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Crotone kick off?
Cosenza vs Crotone kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Crotone?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Crotone.
Where is Cosenza vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Crotone part of?
Cosenza vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 46% chance of winning, Crotone a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cosenza and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Crotone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Crotone in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Crotone (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Crotone's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Crotone's attack (0.99x) against Cosenza's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
46%
2.20
28%
3.53
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Cosenza xG
Total xG
3.14
1.34
Crotone xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
4%
23.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.34 for Crotone, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Crotone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 2W 1D 2L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crotone's form line: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games, 0.60 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Crotone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cosenza are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crotone.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cosenza have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Crotone in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Crotone
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Crotone in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Crotone have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cosenza
1
Draws
0
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Crotone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2022, when Crotone 3-3 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Crotone?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Cosenza, 80% for Crotone — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Cosenza and 80% for Crotone. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Crotone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cosenza's games and 80% of Crotone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Cosenza's matches and 80% of Crotone's.
Do Cosenza and Crotone tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Crotone in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Crotone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Crotone 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.80 xG and Crotone 1.34 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crotone landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Crotone attack 0.99 / defence 1.46, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 46% | Draw 28% | Crotone 26%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 40%, Crotone 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Crotone's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Cosenza conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Crotone managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.