Perugia 1-1 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alessandria at 37%, yet in-form Perugia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Perugia vs Alessandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Perugia and Alessandria meet at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alessandria (all games): 0W 0D 5L across 5 Serie B outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Alessandria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alessandria's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Serie B this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Perugia's 1.60 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Alessandria's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Alessandria half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Perugia 40% and Alessandria 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Perugia 40% | Alessandria 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.72 xG and Alessandria 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.961 / defence 1.283 | Alessandria attack 0.957 / defence 1.608. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.414. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.608 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Perugia games / 5 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 37% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 37%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Alessandria 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 40% | Alessandria 67%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 37% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Perugia 1.72 / Alessandria 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.961 / def 1.283 | Alessandria attack 0.957 / def 1.608 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Alessandria xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Alessandria kick off?
Perugia vs Alessandria kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Alessandria?
Perugia 1 - 1 Alessandria.
Where is Perugia vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Alessandria part of?
Perugia vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 37% chance of winning, Alessandria a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Perugia and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Alessandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Alessandria in?
Perugia (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Alessandria (all comps): 0W-0D-5L in 5 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Perugia's attack rating (0.96) and Alessandria's defence rating (1.61), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alessandria's attack (0.96x) against Perugia's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandria Win
37%
2.73
26%
3.85
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Perugia xG
Total xG
3.45
1.74
Alessandria xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
6%
15.50
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Perugia and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Perugia and 1.74 for Alessandria, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Perugia have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 2W 2D 1L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alessandria's form line: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Alessandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Perugia are the form team by 1.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alessandria.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Perugia are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 1.40 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alessandria in 80%.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Early Season
Alessandria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 (0.00 PPG).
Have Perugia or Alessandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Alessandria in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Perugia
1
Draws
0
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Alessandria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2022, when Alessandria 1-2 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Alessandria?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 40%, Alessandria 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Perugia and 80% for Alessandria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Alessandria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Perugia's games and 80% of Alessandria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Perugia vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Perugia's matches and 80% of Alessandria's.
Do Perugia and Alessandria tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Perugia and Alessandria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia and Alessandria finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.72 xG and Alessandria 1.74 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.96 / defence 1.28 against Alessandria attack 0.96 / defence 1.61, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 37% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 37%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 40%, Alessandria 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Alessandria's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Perugia arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alessandria conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.