Monza 3-1 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Pordenone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Monza host Pordenone at U-Power Stadium in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Monza have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Monza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pordenone — All Games: 0W 1D 4L from 5 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Pordenone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Monza in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Pordenone in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 80% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 60% versus Pordenone 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Monza 20% | Pordenone 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.38 xG and Pordenone 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.869 / defence 0.941 | Pordenone attack 0.567 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.430. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.431 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Monza games / 5 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 49% | Draw 33% | Pordenone 18%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Pordenone 5.56. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Monza 60% | Pordenone 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 49% | Draw 33% | Pordenone 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Monza 1.38 / Pordenone 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.869 / def 0.941 | Pordenone attack 0.567 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Monza (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Pordenone xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Pordenone kick off?
Monza vs Pordenone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Pordenone?
Monza 3 - 1 Pordenone.
Where is Monza vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Pordenone part of?
Monza vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 49% chance of winning, Pordenone a 18% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Monza and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Pordenone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Pordenone in?
Monza (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Pordenone (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Monza's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Pordenone's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Pordenone's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
49%
2.04
33%
3.06
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Monza xG
Total xG
2.14
0.76
Pordenone xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
5%
21.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Monza and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Monza and 0.76 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Pordenone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Monza have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 1W 3D 1L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pordenone's form line: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games, 0.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Pordenone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pordenone.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.20 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monza have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Pordenone in 20%.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Early Season
Pordenone
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Have Monza or Pordenone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Pordenone in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Monza
0
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Monza have won 2, Pordenone have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2022, when Pordenone 1-4 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Pordenone?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 60%, Pordenone 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Monza and 40% for Pordenone.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Pordenone in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Monza's recent matches and 20% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Monza's recent games and 40% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Pordenone tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pordenone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Pordenone 3-1 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.38 xG and Pordenone 0.76 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Pordenone attack 0.57 / defence 1.43, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 49% | Draw 33% | Pordenone 18%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 20%, Pordenone 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Pordenone's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.20. Form held, and they took the win. Monza scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Pordenone scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.