Sudtirol 1-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Marco Druso. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Brescia (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brescia's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Sudtirol's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Brescia's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sudtirol, 1 for Brescia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 54% versus Brescia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Brescia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.70 xG and Brescia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.171 / defence 1.104 | Brescia attack 0.841 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.039. Data: 41 Sudtirol games / 41 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 53% | Draw 27% | Brescia 20%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Brescia 5.00. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 30% | Brescia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 53% | Draw 27% | Brescia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Sudtirol 1.70 / Brescia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.171 / def 1.104 | Brescia attack 0.841 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Brescia xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Brescia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Brescia kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Sudtirol 1 - 2 Brescia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Brescia part of?
Sudtirol vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 53% chance of winning, Brescia a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sudtirol and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Brescia?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 2 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Brescia in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Brescia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.84x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
53%
1.87
27%
3.76
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.67
0.96
Brescia xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
4%
27.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.96 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 14W 11D 16L from 41 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 14L across 41 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.24 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 9W 5D 7L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brescia's away record stands at 5W 7D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.12 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Brescia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Brescia have gone 12W 15D 14L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Brescia away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.52 PPG; Brescia away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
3
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Brescia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Brescia 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 43%, Brescia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sudtirol) and 33% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 38% of games; Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 57% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sudtirol's recent games and 33% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Brescia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Brescia in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brescia defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Sudtirol 1-2 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.70 xG and Brescia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Brescia outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.17 / defence 1.10 against Brescia attack 0.84 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 53% | Draw 27% | Brescia 20%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Brescia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Brescia 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.29 PPG, Brescia 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.