Pisa 2-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Reggiana travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Reggiana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggiana away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.10 PPG versus Reggiana's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Pisa have won 0, Reggiana 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Reggiana trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 71% versus Reggiana 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 54% | Reggiana 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.37 xG and Reggiana 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.264 / defence 1.095 | Reggiana attack 1.017 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.039. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 1.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Pisa games / 41 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 40% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 30%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Reggiana 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 70% | Reggiana 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 40% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Pisa 1.37 / Reggiana 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.264 / def 1.095 | Reggiana attack 1.017 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Pisa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Reggiana xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Reggiana kick off?
Pisa vs Reggiana kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Reggiana?
Pisa 2 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Pisa vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Reggiana part of?
Pisa vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 40% chance of winning, Reggiana a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pisa and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Reggiana?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 2 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Pisa and Reggiana in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Reggiana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pisa's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.39
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.53
1.16
Reggiana xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pisa and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Pisa and 1.16 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 15D 14L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.32 PPG from 41 outings (12W 18D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Reggiana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.24 PPG, Reggiana on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pisa's home form reads 7W 9D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.05 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Reggiana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 12W 15D 14L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 12W 18D 11L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Reggiana away?
Pisa's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.50 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Pisa or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Reggiana in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pisa's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pisa
2
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Reggiana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Reggiana 0-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Reggiana?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 75%, Reggiana 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Pisa) and 45% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 35%; Reggiana in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Reggiana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Pisa's games and 40% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Pisa's recent games and 45% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Reggiana tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Reggiana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Reggiana 2-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.37 xG and Reggiana 1.16 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.26 / defence 1.09 against Reggiana attack 1.02 / defence 0.82, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 40% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 30%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 54%, Reggiana 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.24 PPG, Reggiana 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.