Reggiana 1-3 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Pescara.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Reggiana welcome Pescara to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 33). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Reggiana — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Reggiana have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Pescara have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Pescara's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Reggiana) versus 1.40 (Pescara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Reggiana, 1 for Pescara and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Reggiana 1–2 Pescara — a Pescara win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pescara in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 56% versus Pescara 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 50% | Pescara 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.36 xG and Pescara 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.718 / defence 1.166 | Pescara attack 0.945 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.101. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.36. Pescara's defence rating of 1.377 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reggiana's projected output up. Data: built from Reggiana's last 70 games and Pescara's last 32.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 39% | Draw 30% | Pescara 32%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.59 | Draw 3.35 | Pescara 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reggiana 50% (last 10 home games) | Pescara 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, matchday 33 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 39% | Draw 30% | Pescara 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Reggiana 1.36 / Pescara 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.718 / def 1.166 | Pescara attack 0.945 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Pescara xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Pescara FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Pescara kick off?
Reggiana vs Pescara kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Pescara?
Reggiana 1 - 3 Pescara.
Where is Reggiana vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Pescara part of?
Reggiana vs Pescara is a Serie B fixture (matchday 33) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 39% chance of winning, Pescara a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Reggiana and Pescara will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Reggiana vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.72x the league average against Pescara's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pescara's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 70 games and Pescara's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.35
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.58
1.21
Pescara xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Pescara Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.21 for Pescara, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Pescara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana's recent record stands at 7W 9D 16L from 32 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Pescara, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 15L across 32 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 0.94 PPG, Pescara on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 4W 6D 5L from their last 15 home games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pescara's away record stands at 1W 6D 8L across their last 15 away games, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.34 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 62%.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Pescara
Current Season
Reggiana (Home) vs Pescara (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Current Season
Pescara
Current Season
❓ Reggiana vs Pescara Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Pescara in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 7W 9D 16L in their last 32 games (0.94 PPG), while Pescara have gone 6W 11D 15L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Pescara away?
Reggiana's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.20 PPG; Pescara away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
0
Draws
2
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Pescara H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Pescara?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 0, Pescara have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Pescara last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Reggiana 1-3 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Pescara?
Pescara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 60%, Pescara 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Reggiana) and 67% (Pescara). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 27% of games; Pescara in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Pescara Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Pescara matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Reggiana's games and 67% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Reggiana and Pescara matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Reggiana's matches and 67% of Pescara's.
Do Reggiana and Pescara matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Reggiana's recent matches and 80% of Pescara's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pescara cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pescara beat Reggiana 1-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.36 xG and Pescara 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pescara outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against Pescara attack 0.94 / defence 1.38, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 39% | Draw 30% | Pescara 32%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pescara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 50%, Pescara 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Pescara's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 0.94 PPG, Pescara 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pescara win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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