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Poisson rates Venezia at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Juve Stabia encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Venezia and Juve Stabia meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.

Juve Stabia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Venezia's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Juve Stabia's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Juve Stabia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Juve Stabia 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.85 xG and Juve Stabia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.319 / defence 0.934 | Juve Stabia attack 0.881 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.101. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Venezia games / 70 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Venezia 58% | Draw 25% | Juve Stabia 17%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Juve Stabia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 40% | Juve Stabia 50%.

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